A potentially landmark hearing resumes today, where federal labor officials will determine whether some USC athletes are employees of the university, the Pac-12 and NCAA. A ruling in favor of employee status could turn the tide on the NCAA’s long-standing insistence that its players are amateur “student-athletes” — but don’t get too excited yet.

Any lasting decision that’ll apply to college athletes across the country will likely have to come from the Supreme Court, and that process could take years.

Today, I’m diving into the latest seismic shift in the world of collegiate athletics.

It’ll get messy

In the case against USC, the National Labor Relations Board is alleging that the university, Pac-12 and NCAA are unlawfully classifying athletes on the football and basketball teams as amateurs. One of the labor board’s own administrative law judges is presiding over the hearing.

The question isn’t really how the judge will rule — a decision in favor of employee status seems likely — but rather, how long the appeals process will take, and how long it’ll for take this case or a similar one to wind up in front of the Supreme Court.

Whichever party loses is sure to initiate a lengthy appeal, so the judge’s ruling won’t be the end of this. And for the case to have serious implications beyond just USC, it’ll need to make it much farther up the food chain.

That’s because the labor board only deals with specific instances. For example, when the board ruled earlier this month that men’s basketball athletes at Dartmouth College are union-eligible employees, it didn’t affect any other athletes at Dartmouth — and it certainly didn’t mean that Harvard or Yale basketball players were awarded the same status. 

Just because the board decides that one set of athletes are professionals doesn’t mean that all others are too. 

Of course, the case at USC has potentially larger implications than at Dartmouth because the NCAA and a major athletic conference are also included in the charges. But a ruling in favor of employee status is sure to raise more questions than answers. Here’s one: The labor board only oversees the private sector. USC and the NCAA are both private organizations. 

But what about UCLA? Those athletes play for a public university whose workers must seek labor arbitration with the separate California Public Employment Relations Board. But those athletes still play in the private NCAA. So are they part of the public or private sector? Who gets jurisdiction over them?

Also, certainly not all collegiate athletes meet the definition of an employee under federal labor law; the golf team, while still subject to a rigorous schedule, likely practices fewer hours and rakes in drastically less revenue than the football team. But what’s the threshold? At what point do student-athletes become professionals?

“There’s going to be no finality until there’s acceptance across all the courts because of a Supreme Court ruling, or alternatively because Congress actually gets involved or even the states get involved,” said Joseph Paller, a labor attorney. “I just don’t anticipate Congress doing anything.” 

It’ll get messier

The road to the Supreme Court will be a long one. As already established, separate labor board rulings could lead to a confusing patchwork of rules across different schools and athletic conferences. But it gets worse than that.

The labor board is a creature of politics, and a shift in the White House this election cycle could lead to appointees who are more hostile toward unions and collective bargaining. And even once those cases make it to the judicial system, the 13 circuit courts all have different track records in labor rulings.

So even if the 5th Circuit, which is historically skeptical of labor unions, strikes down one of the labor board’s rulings, the board could continue to litigate its position in all the other circuits — like the historically union-friendly 9th Circuit. That’s a patchwork on top of a patchwork. 

And even ahead of any major judicial ruling, some universities will no doubt look to alter practice and competition regimes to protect the amateur status of their athletes. 

“We’re moving into a brave new world where issues that the courts and agencies have turned a blind eye to for decades are finally getting the kind of scrutiny that they deserve,” Paller said. “The economic reality is that students are engaged in profit-making activities, and every aspect of every hour that they spend as an athlete is regulated by the university. That is, I would say, employment.” 

What widespread employee status across the NCAA would actually mean is a bit of an open question. Athletes would make at least a minimum wage and in most cases be able to unionize and bargain over working conditions, but it’s hard to predict how that would play into the already seismic conference realignment and name, image and likeness deals. 

Already, though, the NCAA of today is not the institution of your parents’ generation. And in a decade, even you might not recognize it anymore.